Discrete simulation of traffc accidents on the Peruvian highway using A RENA

Abstract

This paper developed a simulation model in ARENA, taking into account its versatility and power, with the purpose of studying possible crash scenarios on a Peruvian highway in the next five years. Based on the available data and the assumptions used in the probability distribution for each factor, crashes that may occur in the future, without changes in the actual road conditions, were simulated. The results, validated with real data from 2022 and 2023, showed the areas, periods of the year, days, hours, potential hazard vehicles that need more signage or human or technological control, to decrease the exponential generation rate which is currently 5.08 days. In conclusion, it is an important contribution of science to academia and safety practice to address the high vehicle accident rate, which is showing significant increases and needs to raise awareness among institutions and road users.